Villarreal 4-4 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 19 May 2024

Villarreal
4-4 HT 1-4
Real Madrid
📅19/05/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Villarreal vs Real Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.61
Over 2.5
51%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.39
No
48%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
6.17
2-3 Goals
39%
2.08
4-5 Goals
24%
2.56
6+ Goals
11%
5.58
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 6.17 — our 26% vs market 11.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.06
1/2
8%
21.45
1/X
6%
12.2
X/1
8%
7.04
X/2
13%
5.45
X/X
10%
5.96
2/1
11%
26.5
2/2
20%
2.84
2/X
9%
12.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
33%
+0.7pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
42%
Away Win
43%
-1.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
35%
+13.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
65%
-13.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
68%
-16.1pp
48%
BTTS No
32%
+16.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Villarreal v Real Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villarreal EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 48%
+11% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +14%
1.62/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.27
+33% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +40%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
336 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 449 · 83%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
13.6 Crosses 12.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1

Villarreal vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Villarreal
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Real Madrid
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.25 xG 1.99
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
412 Passes 464
86% Pass Accuracy 89%
23 Box Touches 34
10 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.12.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 4-1 HT 2-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
08.04.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-3 HT 1-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
19.01.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 2-3 HT 2-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İSPK
07.01.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 2-1 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
12.02.2022 Villarreal Villarreal 0-0 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
25.09.2021 Real Madrid Real Madrid 0-0 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1

Villarreal 4-4 Real Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Villarreal
4-4
AWAY Real Madrid
1.78 xG 1.04
43% Ball Possession 57%
21 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 3
449 Passes 630
89% Pass Accuracy 92%
45 Box Touches 21
26 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Villarreal vs Real Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal and Real Madrid couldn't be separated, finishing 4-4. Half-time: 1-4. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Real Madrid at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Villarreal had 43% of the ball to Real Madrid's 57%, shots finished 21-12, expected goals 1.78 to 1.04.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Villarreal and 1.67 for Real Madrid.

What was the final score of Villarreal vs Real Madrid?

Villarreal 4-4 Real Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villarreal vs Real Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Villarreal 34%, draw 25%, Real Madrid 42%. The final score 4-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Real Madrid) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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