Augsburg 0-1 Stuttgart — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 12 Jan 2025

Augsburg
0-1 HT 0-0
Stuttgart
📅12/01/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Augsburg vs Stuttgart Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
3.46
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
35%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.52
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.22
6+ Goals
10%
11.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.52 — our 30% vs market 22.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
5.81
1/2
9%
23.85
1/X
7%
14.15
X/1 EV+ ✗
16%
7.98
X/2
16%
4.42
X/X
13%
5.04
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
10%
2.55
2/X
6%
13.6
Value flag · X/1 at 7.98 — our 16% vs market 9.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
26%
+13.1pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
35%
Away Win
49%
-13.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.6pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Augsburg v Stuttgart — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Augsburg EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 53%
+3% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -19%
1.10/1.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/1.17
-6% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -15%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
280 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 396 · 79%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.0
16.5 Crosses 19.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.9

Augsburg vs Stuttgart Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Augsburg
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Stuttgart
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.95 xG 1.91
34% Ball Possession 66%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
201 Passes 496
70% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 31
15 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.05.2024 Augsburg Augsburg 0-1 HT 0-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
20.12.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 3-0 HT 2-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
21.04.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 1-1 HT 1-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
29.10.2022 Stuttgart Stuttgart 2-1 HT 1-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
19.03.2022 Stuttgart Stuttgart 3-2 HT 1-2 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
31.10.2021 Augsburg Augsburg 4-1 HT 1-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1

Augsburg 0-1 Stuttgart — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Augsburg
0-1
AWAY Stuttgart
0.30 xG 2.43
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 9
315 Passes 456
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 36
17 Crosses 25
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Augsburg vs Stuttgart
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stuttgart edged past Augsburg 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Stuttgart found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Augsburg had 43% of the ball to Stuttgart's 57%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 0.30 to 2.43 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Stuttgart's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stuttgart led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Augsburg and 1.83 for Stuttgart.

What was the final score of Augsburg vs Stuttgart?

Augsburg 0-1 Stuttgart in the Germany - Bundesliga on 12/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Augsburg vs Stuttgart?

Before kick-off our model rated a Augsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Augsburg 39%, draw 26%, Stuttgart 35%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Augsburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Augsburg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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