RB Leipzig 4-2 Werder Bremen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 12 Jan 2025

RB Leipzig
4-2 HT 2-1
Werder Bremen
📅12/01/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.86
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
32%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.23
Over 2.5
56%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.48
2-3 Goals
39%
1.87
4-5 Goals
27%
2.78
6+ Goals
13%
7.76
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.46
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.45
X/1
16%
4.59
X/2
11%
8.16
X/X
8%
5.73
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.6
2/2
14%
5.47
2/X
8%
13.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.6 — our 8% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-2.4pp
21%
Draw
24%
-3.5pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+5.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.8pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

RB Leipzig v Werder Bremen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 29%
+4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +13%
2.15/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.56
+25% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -13%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
390 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 76%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
16.0 Crosses 16.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5

RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RB Leipzig
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Werder Bremen
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.04 xG 1.35
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
482 Passes 330
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
32 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.05.2024 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 1-1 HT 0-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
19.12.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-1 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
14.05.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-1 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
12.11.2022 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-2 HT 0-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
30.04.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-2 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AFK
10.04.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-4 HT 0-3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1

RB Leipzig 4-2 Werder Bremen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RB Leipzig
4-2
AWAY Werder Bremen
2.15 xG 1.50
49% Ball Possession 51%
18 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
426 Passes 441
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
29 Box Touches 15
11 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RB Leipzig got the better of Werder Bremen 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had RB Leipzig as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, RB Leipzig had 49% of the ball to Werder Bremen's 51%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 2.15 to 1.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, RB Leipzig had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.00 for Werder Bremen.

What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen?

RB Leipzig 4-2 Werder Bremen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 12/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen?

Before kick-off our model rated a RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split RB Leipzig 48%, draw 21%, Werder Bremen 32%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (RB Leipzig), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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