RB Leipzig 1-1 Werder Bremen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.37
Draw
21%
4.62
Away
21%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.96
Over 2.5
60%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
7.01
2-3 Goals
36%
2.19
4-5 Goals
30%
2.46
6+ Goals
13%
4.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.61
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
18.55
X/1
13%
3.85
X/2
6%
15.4
X/X
7%
8.55
2/1
6%
18.5
2/2
11%
10.1
2/X
7%
18.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
68%
-9.8pp
21%
Draw
18%
+2.7pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+7.1pp
40%
Under 2.5
30%
+10.3pp
60%
Over 2.5
70%
-10.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.4pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 18%
-1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +11%
2.20/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.66
-6% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +22%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
456 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
31.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
18.0 Crosses 13.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RB Leipzig
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Werder Bremen
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.04 xG 1.35
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
502 Passes 308
85% Pass Accuracy 74%
32 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.12.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-1 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
14.05.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-1 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
12.11.2022 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-2 HT 0-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
30.04.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-2 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AFK
10.04.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-4 HT 0-3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
12.12.2020 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-0 HT 2-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RB Leipzig
1-1
AWAY Werder Bremen
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
397 Passes 505
87% Pass Accuracy 87%
POST-MATCH RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had RB Leipzig at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, RB Leipzig had 44% of the ball to Werder Bremen's 56%, shots finished 13-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, RB Leipzig had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for RB Leipzig and 0.83 for Werder Bremen.

What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen?

RB Leipzig 1-1 Werder Bremen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen?

Before kick-off our model rated a RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split RB Leipzig 58%, draw 21%, Werder Bremen 21%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (RB Leipzig), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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