Freiburg 1-1 Heidenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
29%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.15
Over 2.5
54%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.66
No
45%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.16
2-3 Goals
41%
1.86
4-5 Goals
24%
3.04
6+ Goals
14%
9.52
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.25
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.1
X/1
18%
4.2
X/2
8%
8.96
X/X
11%
5.57
2/1
8%
21.45
2/2
14%
6.4
2/X
7%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-7.2pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.5pp
29%
Away Win
23%
+5.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
43%
+3.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
57%
-3.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.9pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 26%
+5% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +30% / +30%
2.07/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.31
+1% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +74%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
399 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 74%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
22.3 Crosses 15.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Heidenheim
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.85 xG 1.89
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
405 Passes 249
78% Pass Accuracy 71%
19 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 3
20.12.2023 Heidenheim Heidenheim 3-2 HT 0-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
08.05.2016 Freiburg Freiburg 2-0 HT 0-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
27.11.2015 Heidenheim Heidenheim 1-2 HT 1-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg
1-1
AWAY Heidenheim
1.54 xG 0.66
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
436 Passes 325
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
35 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Freiburg vs Heidenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg and Heidenheim couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Freiburg at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Freiburg had 56% of the ball to Heidenheim's 44%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 1.54 to 0.66.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Freiburg had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Freiburg and 1.33 for Heidenheim.

What was the final score of Freiburg vs Heidenheim?

Freiburg 1-1 Heidenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg vs Heidenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Freiburg win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Freiburg 46%, draw 26%, Heidenheim 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Freiburg), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Freiburg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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