Mainz 05 3-0 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 11 May 2024

Mainz 05
3-0 HT 3-0
Borussia Dortmund
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.82
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.51
Over 2.5
49%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.46
No
50%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
23%
5.75
2-3 Goals
42%
2.03
4-5 Goals
23%
2.62
6+ Goals
12%
6.06
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.75 — our 23% vs market 12.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.35
1/2
7%
33.0
1/X
8%
13.15
X/1
16%
4.66
X/2
10%
8.39
X/X
11%
6.22
2/1
9%
20.1
2/2
11%
5.25
2/X
7%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-4.5pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.8pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
36%
+15.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
64%
-15.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
64%
-14.8pp
50%
BTTS No
36%
+14.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mainz 05 v Borussia Dortmund — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 29%
+1% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.49/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.83
-4% / +53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
348 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 76%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
22.4 Crosses 12.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7

Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.20 xG 1.92
35% Ball Possession 65%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
234 Passes 534
72% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 31
11 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
19.12.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-1 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
27.05.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-2 HT 0-2 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
25.01.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-2 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
16.03.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-1 HT 0-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
16.10.2021 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3-1 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
16.05.2021 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-3 HT 0-2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1

Mainz 05 3-0 Borussia Dortmund — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05
3-0
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
2.19 xG 0.36
32% Ball Possession 68%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
201 Passes 545
72% Pass Accuracy 87%
24 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 ran out comfortable winners over Borussia Dortmund 3-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Mainz 05 as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Mainz 05 had 32% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 68%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 2.19 to 0.36.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Mainz 05 and 2.00 for Borussia Dortmund.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund?

Mainz 05 3-0 Borussia Dortmund in the Germany - Bundesliga on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 46%, draw 25%, Borussia Dortmund 28%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mainz 05) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mainz 05) ✗ Under 2.5
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