Köln vs Union Berlin Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Köln v Union Berlin — Team-Based Signals
Köln vs Union Berlin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 0-0
Köln
AL1
0-0
HT 0-0
Köln
AL1
0-1
HT 0-1
Union Berlin
AL1
1-0
HT 0-0
Köln
AL1
2-2
HT 1-2
Union Berlin
AL1
2-1
HT 0-1
Köln
AL1
Köln 3-2 Union Berlin — Actual Match Statistics
Köln edged past Union Berlin 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 25% / 37% — and on the day Köln made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Köln had 62% of the ball to Union Berlin's 38%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 3.21 to 1.64 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Köln's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Berlin led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Köln and 1.33 for Union Berlin.
What was the final score of Köln vs Union Berlin?
Köln 3-2 Union Berlin in the Germany - Bundesliga on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Köln vs Union Berlin?
Before kick-off our model rated a Köln win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Köln 37%, draw 25%, Union Berlin 37%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.