Citizen AA 4-1 Sham Shui Po — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division, 12 Jan 2025

📅12/01/2025 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.25
Draw
22%
5.71
Away
21%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
Over 2.5
56%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
8%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
76%
-18.6pp
22%
Draw
15%
+7.4pp
21%
Away Win
10%
+11.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.1pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Citizen AA EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Sham Shui Po EU Bookmakers 12%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
2.54/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/3.70
-15% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -20%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
394 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 231 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 5.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Citizen AA
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Sham Shui Po
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
22.12.2024 Sham Shui Po Sham Shui Po 2-3 Citizen AA Citizen AA HK2
07.11.2021 Citizen AA Citizen AA 1-4 HT 1-4 Sham Shui Po Sham Shui Po HK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Citizen AA
4-1
AWAY Sham Shui Po
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 4
5 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Citizen AA vs Sham Shui Po
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Citizen AA swept aside Sham Shui Po 4-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Citizen AA as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Citizen AA had 52% of the ball to Sham Shui Po's 48%, shots finished 9-4.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Citizen AA and 3.00 for Sham Shui Po.

What was the final score of Citizen AA vs Sham Shui Po?

Citizen AA 4-1 Sham Shui Po in the Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division on 12/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Citizen AA vs Sham Shui Po?

Before kick-off our model rated a Citizen AA win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Citizen AA 57%, draw 22%, Sham Shui Po 21%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Citizen AA), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Citizen AA) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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