EGS Gafsa 2-1 Ben Guerdane — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Tunisia - 1st Division, 12 Jan 2025

📅12/01/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.53
Draw
36%
2.83
Away
34%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.36
Over 2.5
41%
2.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.44
No
57%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
1.76
2-3 Goals
37%
1.83
4-5 Goals
20%
7.27
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
18%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
36%
-5.3pp
36%
Draw
32%
+3.9pp
34%
Away Win
32%
+1.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
70%
-10.6pp
41%
Over 2.5
30%
+10.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
37%
+6.2pp
57%
BTTS No
63%
-6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME EGS Gafsa EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Ben Guerdane EU Bookmakers 36%
-55% / -55% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.00/3.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/0.86
-6% / -64% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -50% / +16%
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
251 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 393 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 0.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME EGS Gafsa
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Ben Guerdane
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
37% Ball Possession 63%
5 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 2
27.04.2024 Ben Guerdane Ben Guerdane 1-0 HT 0-0 EGS Gafsa EGS Gafsa TUN
07.02.2024 EGS Gafsa EGS Gafsa 0-0 HT 0-0 Ben Guerdane Ben Guerdane TUN
03.01.2024 Ben Guerdane Ben Guerdane 5-0 HT 5-0 EGS Gafsa EGS Gafsa TUN1A
POST-MATCH EGS Gafsa vs Ben Guerdane
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

EGS Gafsa edged past Ben Guerdane 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (31% / 36% / 34%) promised a tight game; EGS Gafsa found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Ben Guerdane led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for EGS Gafsa and 2.00 for Ben Guerdane.

What was the final score of EGS Gafsa vs Ben Guerdane?

EGS Gafsa 2-1 Ben Guerdane in the Tunisia - 1st Division on 12/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for EGS Gafsa vs Ben Guerdane?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split EGS Gafsa 31%, draw 36%, Ben Guerdane 34%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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