Ben Guerdane 1-0 EGS Gafsa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Tunisia - 1st Division Yükselme / Düşme, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.64
Draw
34%
3.35
Away
22%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.45
Over 2.5
38%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.53
No
57%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2.13
2-3 Goals
37%
1.82
4-5 Goals
18%
5.94
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
21%
X/2
6%
X/X
21%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
57%
-12.7pp
34%
Draw
27%
+7.2pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+5.6pp
62%
Under 2.5
65%
-3.0pp
38%
Over 2.5
35%
+3.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
36%
+7.7pp
57%
BTTS No
64%
-7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ben Guerdane EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY EGS Gafsa EU Bookmakers 19%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
0.50/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/0.99
-60% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +11%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
381 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ben Guerdane
1W-1D-0L
AWAY EGS Gafsa
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 0
07.02.2024 EGS Gafsa EGS Gafsa 0-0 HT 0-0 Ben Guerdane Ben Guerdane TUN
03.01.2024 Ben Guerdane Ben Guerdane 5-0 HT 5-0 EGS Gafsa EGS Gafsa TUN1A
POST-MATCH Ben Guerdane vs EGS Gafsa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ben Guerdane edged past EGS Gafsa 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ben Guerdane as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Ben Guerdane had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Ben Guerdane and 0.00 for EGS Gafsa.

What was the final score of Ben Guerdane vs EGS Gafsa?

Ben Guerdane 1-0 EGS Gafsa in the Tunisia - 1st Division Yükselme / Düşme on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ben Guerdane vs EGS Gafsa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ben Guerdane win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Ben Guerdane 44%, draw 34%, EGS Gafsa 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ben Guerdane), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ben Guerdane) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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