Lugazi Municipal 1-0 Uganda Police — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 12 Feb 2025

📅12/02/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.92
Draw
34%
2.94
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.51
No
54%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
19%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
48%
-8.9pp
34%
Draw
30%
+3.9pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+4.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
36%
+10.0pp
54%
BTTS No
64%
-10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugazi Municipal EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Uganda Police EU Bookmakers 25%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/0.98
-23% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +28%
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
289 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugazi Municipal
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Uganda Police
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 1
20.11.2024 Uganda Police Uganda Police 0-0 HT 0-0 Lugazi Municipal UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugazi Municipal
1-0
AWAY Uganda Police
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lugazi Municipal vs Uganda Police
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugazi Municipal nicked a narrow win over Uganda Police 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 34% / 26%) promised a tight game; Lugazi Municipal found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lugazi Municipal had 54% of the ball to Uganda Police's 46%, shots finished 9-12.

What was the final score of Lugazi Municipal vs Uganda Police?

Lugazi Municipal 1-0 Uganda Police in the Uganda - Premier League on 12/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugazi Municipal vs Uganda Police?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugazi Municipal win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Lugazi Municipal 39%, draw 34%, Uganda Police 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugazi Municipal), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lugazi Municipal) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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