Lille 1-2 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 12 Mar 2025

Lille
1-2 HT 1-0
Borussia Dortmund
📅12/03/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Champions League – 2024/2025

Lille vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.53
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
35%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.75
Over 2.5
49%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.93
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.72
6+ Goals
10%
16.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.89
1/2
8%
29.5
1/X
7%
12.9
X/1
13%
5.72
X/2
10%
5.66
X/X
10%
4.31
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
30.0
2/2
17%
3.83
2/X
9%
12.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 30.0 — our 9% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
36%
+2.9pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.7pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-1.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
53%
-2.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
47%
+2.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.0pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lille v Borussia Dortmund — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lille EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 39%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +1%
1.08/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.44
+95% / +79% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +55% / +13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
338 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 79%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
9.0 Crosses 14.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.9

Lille vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lille
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.88 xG 0.28
57% Ball Possession 43%
9 Total Shots 7
1 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 5
493 Passes 339
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 18
7 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.03.2025 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-1 HT 1-0 Lille Lille ŞMP

Lille 1-2 Borussia Dortmund — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lille
1-2
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.18 xG 3.06
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 3
340 Passes 353
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lille vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund nicked a narrow win over Lille 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Borussia Dortmund found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Lille had 50% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 50%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 1.18 to 3.06 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Borussia Dortmund's control.

What was the final score of Lille vs Borussia Dortmund?

Lille 1-2 Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League on 12/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lille vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Lille 39%, draw 26%, Borussia Dortmund 35%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lille), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lille) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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