Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid — Team-Based Signals
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Atletico Madrid 1-0 Real Madrid — Actual Match Statistics
Atletico Madrid squeezed past Real Madrid 1-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Atletico Madrid had 38% of the ball to Real Madrid's 62%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 1.36 to 1.09.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Atletico Madrid and 2.00 for Real Madrid.
What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?
Atletico Madrid 1-0 Real Madrid in the Champions League on 12/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?
Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 45%, draw 24%, Real Madrid 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.