Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 8 Feb 2025

📅08/02/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.9
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
27%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.18
Over 2.5
56%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.56
No
43%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.19
2-3 Goals
35%
1.85
4-5 Goals
28%
2.87
6+ Goals
14%
8.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.58
1/2
5%
32.0
1/X
5%
12.45
X/1
17%
4.88
X/2
14%
7.82
X/X
14%
5.38
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.7
2/2
8%
5.35
2/X
7%
13.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.7 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-1.8pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.8pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
42%
+1.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
58%
-1.9pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.4pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 30%
+7% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
1.59/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.69
+4% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
472 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 396 · 83%
31.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
19.5 Crosses 12.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Atletico Madrid
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.70 xG 1.29
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
631 Passes 450
92% Pass Accuracy 87%
35 Box Touches 21
24 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
29.09.2024 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-1 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
04.02.2024 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
18.01.2024 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 4-2 HT 1-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İSPK
10.01.2024 Real Madrid Real Madrid 5-3 HT 2-2 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İSSK
24.09.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-1 HT 2-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
25.02.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
1-1
AWAY Atletico Madrid
1.72 xG 1.47
60% Ball Possession 40%
23 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 1
617 Passes 381
93% Pass Accuracy 86%
33 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Real Madrid at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (57%) landed while over 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

On the day, Real Madrid had 60% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 40%, shots finished 23-10, expected goals 1.72 to 1.47.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Real Madrid and 2.17 for Atletico Madrid.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid?

Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 08/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 47%, draw 26%, Atletico Madrid 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Real Madrid), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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