Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 4 Feb 2024

Real Madrid
1-1 HT 1-0
Atletico Madrid
📅04/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.66
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
18%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.21
Over 2.5
49%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
23%
4.38
2-3 Goals
45%
1.88
4-5 Goals
23%
2.92
6+ Goals
9%
8.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.38 — our 23% vs market 17.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.11
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
14.5
X/1
19%
4.08
X/2
6%
9.46
X/X
15%
5.86
2/1
7%
20.85
2/2
7%
6.73
2/X
5%
15.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
56%
-1.3pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.7pp
18%
Away Win
21%
-3.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.2pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 25%
+14% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -7%
1.57/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.59
+14% / +53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +29%
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
500 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 79%
30.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
19.5 Crosses 12.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 4.2

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Atletico Madrid
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.70 xG 1.45
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 5
670 Passes 462
91% Pass Accuracy 87%
33 Box Touches 21
25 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
18.01.2024 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 4-2 HT 1-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İSPK
10.01.2024 Real Madrid Real Madrid 5-3 HT 2-2 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İSSK
24.09.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-1 HT 2-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
25.02.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
26.01.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İSPK
18.09.2022 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-2 HT 0-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1

Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
1-1
AWAY Atletico Madrid
1.87 xG 1.17
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 8
614 Passes 473
94% Pass Accuracy 90%
37 Box Touches 27
12 Crosses 25
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Real Madrid at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Real Madrid had 55% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 45%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 1.87 to 1.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Real Madrid and 2.17 for Atletico Madrid.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid?

Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 54%, draw 27%, Atletico Madrid 18%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Real Madrid) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Under 2.5
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