Atletico Madrid 1-1 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.57
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
41%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.78
Over 2.5
49%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.1
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.77
6+ Goals
12%
16.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 27% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.98
1/2
7%
29.5
1/X
6%
12.5
X/1
11%
5.81
X/2
13%
5.5
X/X
12%
4.21
2/1
8%
31.5
2/2
21%
3.67
2/X
8%
12.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
35%
-1.8pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.8pp
41%
Away Win
36%
+4.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.8pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 40%
+12% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +18%
0.97/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.22
+8% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +19%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
285 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 416 · 84%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
16.5 Crosses 13.6
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Madrid
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Real Madrid
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.47 xG 1.86
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 8
456 Passes 697
87% Pass Accuracy 92%
22 Box Touches 38
18 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.02.2024 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
18.01.2024 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 4-2 HT 1-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İSPK
10.01.2024 Real Madrid Real Madrid 5-3 HT 2-2 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İSSK
24.09.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-1 HT 2-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
25.02.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
26.01.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İSPK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Madrid
1-1
AWAY Real Madrid
1.28 xG 0.76
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
497 Passes 490
87% Pass Accuracy 89%
20 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Real Madrid at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Atletico Madrid had 51% of the ball to Real Madrid's 49%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.28 to 0.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Atletico Madrid and 2.17 for Real Madrid.

What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?

Atletico Madrid 1-1 Real Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 33%, draw 26%, Real Madrid 41%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Real Madrid) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Under 2.5
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