Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Sevilla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.75
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.75
Over 2.5
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.95
No
49%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.98
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.92
6+ Goals
10%
17.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.24
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.0
X/1
12%
3.88
X/2
10%
9.43
X/X
12%
4.64
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
10%
7.75
2/X EV+ ✗
9%
15.9
Value flag · 2/X at 15.9 — our 9% vs market 3.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
54%
-10.9pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.2pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+6.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
53%
+1.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
47%
-1.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.9pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Sevilla EU Bookmakers 23%
-3% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +6%
1.54/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.43
-1% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +17%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
374 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 71%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
23.8 Crosses 17.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Athletic Bilbao
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sevilla
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.18 xG 0.84
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
341 Passes 377
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.05.2024 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-0 HT 2-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
04.01.2024 Sevilla Sevilla 0-2 HT 0-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
27.04.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-1 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
08.10.2022 Sevilla Sevilla 1-1 HT 1-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
22.05.2022 Sevilla Sevilla 1-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
11.12.2021 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-1 HT 0-1 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athletic Bilbao
1-1
AWAY Sevilla
1.96 xG 1.16
39% Ball Possession 61%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
245 Passes 435
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Athletic Bilbao vs Sevilla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Bilbao and Sevilla shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Athletic Bilbao at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 39% of the ball to Sevilla's 61%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 1.96 to 1.16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sevilla led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Athletic Bilbao and 0.67 for Sevilla.

What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs Sevilla?

Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Sevilla in the Spain - Primera Liga on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs Sevilla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 43%, draw 30%, Sevilla 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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