Hansa Rostock 4-1 Erzgebirge Aue — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 12 Mar 2025

📅12/03/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
33%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.7
No
57%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.44
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
18%
3.51
6+ Goals
9%
13.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.44 — our 31% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.78
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
10%
12.15
X/1
9%
4.93
X/2
11%
7.54
X/X
11%
4.55
2/1
7%
24.7
2/2
15%
5.46
2/X
6%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
46%
-5.7pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.0pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+6.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
55%
-11.6pp
57%
BTTS No
45%
+11.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hansa Rostock EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 30%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.62/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.74
-1% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -8%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
291 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 75%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.8 Crosses 20.0
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hansa Rostock
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.65 xG 1.02
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
255 Passes 317
71% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 13
21 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 3
05.10.2024 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-2 HT 1-1 Hansa Rostock Hansa Rostock AL3
24.04.2022 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-2 HT 2-1 Hansa Rostock Hansa Rostock AL2
20.11.2021 Hansa Rostock Hansa Rostock 1-2 HT 1-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
20.02.2016 Hansa Rostock Hansa Rostock 0-2 HT 0-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
05.09.2015 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 0-0 HT 0-0 Hansa Rostock Hansa Rostock AL3
25.03.2012 Hansa Rostock Hansa Rostock 0-1 HT 0-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hansa Rostock
4-1
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
38% Ball Possession 62%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 6
230 Passes 416
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
10 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hansa Rostock vs Erzgebirge Aue
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hansa Rostock ran out comfortable winners over Erzgebirge Aue 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 27% / 33% — and on the day Hansa Rostock made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hansa Rostock had 38% of the ball to Erzgebirge Aue's 62%, shots finished 14-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Erzgebirge Aue led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.33 for Erzgebirge Aue.

What was the final score of Hansa Rostock vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Hansa Rostock 4-1 Erzgebirge Aue in the Germany - 3rd Division on 12/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hansa Rostock vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hansa Rostock win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Hansa Rostock 40%, draw 27%, Erzgebirge Aue 33%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hansa Rostock) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hansa Rostock) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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