Erzgebirge Aue 1-2 Hansa Rostock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
37%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.74
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
3.25
6+ Goals
13%
11.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.74 — our 27% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.0
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
6%
12.75
X/1
13%
4.96
X/2
13%
6.61
X/X
12%
4.87
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
17%
4.51
2/X
9%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
43%
-5.7pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.5pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+6.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.8pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Hansa Rostock EU Bookmakers 34%
+4% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -16%
1.44/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.22
-11% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +23%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
328 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
12.0 Crosses 24.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Hansa Rostock
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.02 xG 1.65
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
204 Passes 298
68% Pass Accuracy 72%
13 Box Touches 22
8 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 4
24.04.2022 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-2 HT 2-1 Hansa Rostock Hansa Rostock AL2
20.11.2021 Hansa Rostock Hansa Rostock 1-2 HT 1-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
20.02.2016 Hansa Rostock Hansa Rostock 0-2 HT 0-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
05.09.2015 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 0-0 HT 0-0 Hansa Rostock Hansa Rostock AL3
25.03.2012 Hansa Rostock Hansa Rostock 0-1 HT 0-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
30.09.2011 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 HT 0-0 Hansa Rostock Hansa Rostock AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
1-2
AWAY Hansa Rostock
68% Ball Possession 32%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
542 Passes 169
87% Pass Accuracy 69%
23 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Erzgebirge Aue vs Hansa Rostock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hansa Rostock squeezed past Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 37% — and on the day Hansa Rostock made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Erzgebirge Aue had 68% of the ball to Hansa Rostock's 32%, shots finished 13-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Erzgebirge Aue had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 0.50 for Hansa Rostock.

What was the final score of Erzgebirge Aue vs Hansa Rostock?

Erzgebirge Aue 1-2 Hansa Rostock in the Germany - 3rd Division on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzgebirge Aue vs Hansa Rostock?

Before kick-off our model rated a Erzgebirge Aue win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Erzgebirge Aue 38%, draw 26%, Hansa Rostock 37%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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