Persebaya Surabaya 1-1 PSIS Semarang — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Indonesia League 1, 12 Mar 2025

📅12/03/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.53
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.95
Over 2.5
41%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
22%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
61%
-8.9pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.1pp
21%
Away Win
17%
+4.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
48%
+11.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
52%
-11.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.6pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Persebaya Surabaya EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY PSIS Semarang EU Bookmakers 20%
-1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +11%
1.78/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.25
+1% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +34%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
328 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 199 · 67%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Persebaya Surabaya
3W-2D-1L
AWAY PSIS Semarang
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
55% Ball Possession 45%
5 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 2
459 Passes 262
02.11.2024 PSIS Semarang PSIS Semarang 0-1 HT 0-1 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
30.01.2024 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 1-1 HT 1-1 PSIS Semarang PSIS Semarang ENDL1
29.03.2023 PSIS Semarang PSIS Semarang 1-2 HT 1-1 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
23.08.2022 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 HT 0-0 PSIS Semarang PSIS Semarang ENDL1
02.02.2022 PSIS Semarang PSIS Semarang 0-0 HT 0-0 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
03.10.2021 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 2-3 HT 1-2 PSIS Semarang PSIS Semarang ENDL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Persebaya Surabaya
1-1
AWAY PSIS Semarang
56% Ball Possession 44%
21 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Persebaya Surabaya vs PSIS Semarang
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Persebaya Surabaya and PSIS Semarang couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Persebaya Surabaya at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Persebaya Surabaya had 56% of the ball to PSIS Semarang's 44%, shots finished 21-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Persebaya Surabaya had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Persebaya Surabaya and 0.83 for PSIS Semarang.

What was the final score of Persebaya Surabaya vs PSIS Semarang?

Persebaya Surabaya 1-1 PSIS Semarang in the Indonesia League 1 on 12/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Persebaya Surabaya vs PSIS Semarang?

Before kick-off our model rated a Persebaya Surabaya win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Persebaya Surabaya 52%, draw 26%, PSIS Semarang 21%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Persebaya Surabaya), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Persebaya Surabaya) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ENDL1 More Indonesia League 1
12 Mar 2025
15:30 Malut United vs Persita Tangerang Analysis →