Mekelakeya 2-4 Fasil Ketema — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Etiyopya - Premier League, 12 Mar 2025

📅12/03/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.33
Draw
43%
2.63
Away
25%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.52
Over 2.5
34%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.67
No
57%
1.41
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
50%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
4%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
3%
1/X
13%
X/1
7%
X/2
11%
X/X
27%
2/1
3%
2/2
11%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
39%
-7.1pp
43%
Draw
35%
+8.4pp
25%
Away Win
26%
-1.3pp
66%
Under 2.5
62%
+4.1pp
34%
Over 2.5
38%
-4.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
33%
+9.7pp
57%
BTTS No
67%
-9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mekelakeya EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Fasil Ketema EU Bookmakers 29%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.58/1.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.17
+55% / -44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -9%
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
334 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 168 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mekelakeya
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Fasil Ketema
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
8 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
0 Yellow Cards 4
21.01.2025 Fasil Ketema Fasil Ketema 1-1 Mekelakeya Mekelakeya ETH
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mekelakeya
2-4
AWAY Fasil Ketema
53% Ball Possession 47%
6 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mekelakeya vs Fasil Ketema
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fasil Ketema saw off Mekelakeya 4-2 away from home. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was the draw at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mekelakeya had 53% of the ball to Fasil Ketema's 47%, shots finished 6-10.

What was the final score of Mekelakeya vs Fasil Ketema?

Mekelakeya 2-4 Fasil Ketema in the Etiyopya - Premier League on 12/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mekelakeya vs Fasil Ketema?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Mekelakeya 32%, draw 43%, Fasil Ketema 25%. The final score 2-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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