Ural 1-0 Rubin Kazan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Super Cup, 12 Mar 2025

Ural
1-0 HT 1-0
Rubin Kazan
📅12/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Russia - Super Cup – 2024/2025

Ural vs Rubin Kazan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.94
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
44%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.59
Over 2.5
49%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.96
No
51%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.36
2-3 Goals
41%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
4.51
6+ Goals
8%
25.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
4.87
1/2
7%
31.0
1/X
9%
14.75
X/1
13%
6.11
X/2 EV+ ✗
25%
4.76
X/X
13%
4.0
2/1
9%
34.5
2/2
12%
3.34
2/X
6%
14.25
Value flag · X/2 at 4.76 — our 25% vs market 16.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
31%
-2.9pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.1pp
44%
Away Win
41%
+2.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
59%
-8.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
41%
+8.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.1pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ural v Rubin Kazan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ural EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Rubin Kazan EU Bookmakers 45%
+54% / +54% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+10% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
268 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
4.0 Yellow Cards –

Ural vs Rubin Kazan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ural
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Rubin Kazan
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.15 xG 0.92
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
429 Passes 245
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
24 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
29.04.2024 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan 1-1 HT 1-0 Ural Ural RUS
06.11.2023 Ural Ural 0-1 HT 0-0 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan RUS
03.10.2023 Ural Ural 2-0 HT 1-0 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan RUK
29.08.2023 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan 2-1 HT 2-1 Ural Ural RUK
15.05.2022 Ural Ural 3-0 HT 1-0 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan RUS
13.09.2021 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan 4-0 HT 2-0 Ural Ural RUS

Ural 1-0 Rubin Kazan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ural
1-0
AWAY Rubin Kazan
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ural vs Rubin Kazan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ural squeezed past Rubin Kazan 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Rubin Kazan at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Ural had 48% of the ball to Rubin Kazan's 52%, shots finished 11-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rubin Kazan led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Ural and 1.33 for Rubin Kazan.

What was the final score of Ural vs Rubin Kazan?

Ural 1-0 Rubin Kazan in the Russia - Super Cup on 12/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ural vs Rubin Kazan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rubin Kazan win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Ural 28%, draw 28%, Rubin Kazan 44%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Rubin Kazan) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rubin Kazan) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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