Naestved 0-2 AC Horsens — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 12 Apr 2024

📅12/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.38
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
29%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.78
Over 2.5
41%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.07
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.81
6+ Goals
8%
16.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.07 — our 29% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.56
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
9%
13.0
X/1
16%
5.27
X/2
12%
5.77
X/X
17%
4.34
2/1
8%
29.0
2/2
11%
4.05
2/X
6%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
38%
+0.3pp
32%
Draw
28%
+4.3pp
29%
Away Win
34%
-4.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.1pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naestved EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY AC Horsens EU Bookmakers 37%
+2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -6%
1.58/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.05
+5% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
337 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 73%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.9
18.8 Crosses 19.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naestved
2W-1D-1L
AWAY AC Horsens
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.15 xG 2.12
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
342 Passes 312
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 36
18 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.03.2024 Naestved Naestved 1-1 HT 0-0 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
25.08.2023 AC Horsens AC Horsens 3-0 HT 1-0 Naestved Naestved DAN1
29.11.2015 AC Horsens AC Horsens 1-3 HT 1-0 Naestved Naestved DAN1
26.07.2015 Naestved Naestved 2-1 HT 0-1 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naestved
0-2
AWAY AC Horsens
1.99 xG 0.39
68% Ball Possession 32%
15 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
521 Passes 205
82% Pass Accuracy 69%
29 Box Touches 10
20 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Naestved vs AC Horsens
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AC Horsens beat Naestved 2-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 32% / 29% — and on the day AC Horsens made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Naestved had 68% of the ball to AC Horsens's 32%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.99 to 0.39 — the balance of chances actually favoured Naestved.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Naestved had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Naestved and 1.50 for AC Horsens.

What was the final score of Naestved vs AC Horsens?

Naestved 0-2 AC Horsens in the Denmark 1st Division on 12/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naestved vs AC Horsens?

Before kick-off our model rated a Naestved win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Naestved 39%, draw 32%, AC Horsens 29%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Naestved) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Naestved) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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