Chapecoense 1-2 Coritiba — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.46
Draw
29%
2.88
Away
35%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.52
Over 2.5
40%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.23
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
18%
5.03
6+ Goals
8%
31.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
17%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-1.2pp
29%
Draw
32%
-2.4pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+3.6pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.4pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-2.8pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Coritiba EU Bookmakers 34%
-12% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -22%
1.12/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.41
-26% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
305 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 77%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
22.0 Crosses 16.5
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chapecoense
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Coritiba
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.44 xG 1.13
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
270 Passes 309
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
17.11.2024 Chapecoense Chapecoense 2-1 HT 0-1 Coritiba Coritiba BR2
27.07.2024 Coritiba Coritiba 1-0 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
03.12.2017 Chapecoense Chapecoense 2-1 HT 1-1 Coritiba Coritiba BR1
06.08.2017 Coritiba Coritiba 2-0 HT 2-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1
11.09.2016 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-0 HT 0-0 Coritiba Coritiba BR1
02.06.2016 Coritiba Coritiba 3-4 HT 1-2 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chapecoense
1-2
AWAY Coritiba
1.38 xG 0.88
54% Ball Possession 46%
24 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
366 Passes 329
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 13
29 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Chapecoense vs Coritiba
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Coritiba squeezed past Chapecoense 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 29% / 35% — and on the day Coritiba made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chapecoense had 54% of the ball to Coritiba's 46%, shots finished 24-14, expected goals 1.38 to 0.88 — the balance of chances actually favoured Chapecoense.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chapecoense had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Chapecoense and 1.33 for Coritiba.

What was the final score of Chapecoense vs Coritiba?

Chapecoense 1-2 Coritiba in the Brazil - Serie B on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chapecoense vs Coritiba?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chapecoense win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Chapecoense 36%, draw 29%, Coritiba 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Chapecoense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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