Coritiba 1-0 Chapecoense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 27 Jul 2024

📅27/07/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.72
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
21%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.59
Over 2.5
34%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.16
No
64%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
39%
2.47
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
15%
4.81
6+ Goals
8%
27.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.47 — our 39% vs market 34.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
23%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
55%
-4.4pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.8pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+2.6pp
66%
Under 2.5
59%
+7.4pp
34%
Over 2.5
41%
-7.4pp
36%
BTTS Yes
42%
-6.0pp
64%
BTTS No
58%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Coritiba EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 21%
+3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +15%
1.48/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.55
+6% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +34%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
353 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 77%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.6
24.3 Crosses 13.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Coritiba
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Chapecoense
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
293 Passes 290
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 3
03.12.2017 Chapecoense Chapecoense 2-1 HT 1-1 Coritiba Coritiba BR1
06.08.2017 Coritiba Coritiba 2-0 HT 2-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1
11.09.2016 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-0 HT 0-0 Coritiba Coritiba BR1
02.06.2016 Coritiba Coritiba 3-4 HT 1-2 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1
23.08.2015 Coritiba Coritiba 1-0 HT 1-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1
10.05.2015 Chapecoense Chapecoense 2-1 HT 1-1 Coritiba Coritiba BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Coritiba
1-0
AWAY Chapecoense
0.85 xG 0.25
52% Ball Possession 48%
19 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
291 Passes 266
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 8
23 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Coritiba vs Chapecoense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Coritiba nicked a narrow win over Chapecoense 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Coritiba as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (64%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Coritiba had 52% of the ball to Chapecoense's 48%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 0.85 to 0.25.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chapecoense led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Coritiba and 1.50 for Chapecoense.

What was the final score of Coritiba vs Chapecoense?

Coritiba 1-0 Chapecoense in the Brazil - Serie B on 27/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Coritiba vs Chapecoense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Coritiba win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Coritiba 50%, draw 29%, Chapecoense 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Coritiba), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Coritiba) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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