Chapecoense 2-1 Coritiba — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 17 Nov 2024

📅17/11/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.02
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.6
Over 2.5
36%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.96
No
61%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.57
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
17%
4.7
6+ Goals
7%
25.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.57 — our 37% vs market 33.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
19%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-5.0pp
31%
Draw
29%
+1.9pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.1pp
64%
Under 2.5
59%
+5.1pp
36%
Over 2.5
41%
-5.1pp
39%
BTTS Yes
47%
-8.2pp
61%
BTTS No
53%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Coritiba EU Bookmakers 29%
+4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -11%
1.21/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.33
-4% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
343 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 77%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
22.7 Crosses 16.3
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chapecoense
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Coritiba
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.25 xG 0.85
49% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
296 Passes 296
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
12 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 3
27.07.2024 Coritiba Coritiba 1-0 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
03.12.2017 Chapecoense Chapecoense 2-1 HT 1-1 Coritiba Coritiba BR1
06.08.2017 Coritiba Coritiba 2-0 HT 2-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1
11.09.2016 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-0 HT 0-0 Coritiba Coritiba BR1
02.06.2016 Coritiba Coritiba 3-4 HT 1-2 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1
23.08.2015 Coritiba Coritiba 1-0 HT 1-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chapecoense
2-1
AWAY Coritiba
0.63 xG 1.41
41% Ball Possession 59%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 1
212 Passes 357
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Chapecoense vs Coritiba
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chapecoense nicked a narrow win over Coritiba 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Chapecoense as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chapecoense had 41% of the ball to Coritiba's 59%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 0.63 to 1.41 — on chances, Coritiba could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Chapecoense and 1.33 for Coritiba.

What was the final score of Chapecoense vs Coritiba?

Chapecoense 2-1 Coritiba in the Brazil - Serie B on 17/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chapecoense vs Coritiba?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chapecoense win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Chapecoense 41%, draw 31%, Coritiba 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chapecoense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chapecoense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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