Ponte Preta 0-4 Sport Recife — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 17 Nov 2024

📅17/11/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.69
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
37%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.6
Over 2.5
38%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.52
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
18%
4.81
6+ Goals
7%
27.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.52 — our 38% vs market 33.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
18%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
24%
+8.4pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.9pp
37%
Away Win
48%
-11.3pp
62%
Under 2.5
59%
+3.9pp
38%
Over 2.5
41%
-3.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.0pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ponte Preta EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 52%
+7% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.10/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/0.58
+20% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / +23%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
248 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 79%
15.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
17.5 Crosses 23.8
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ponte Preta
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Sport Recife
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.21 xG 1.58
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
220 Passes 379
72% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 4
28.07.2024 Sport Recife Sport Recife 3-1 HT 1-1 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
10.10.2023 Sport Recife Sport Recife 3-3 HT 1-3 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
11.06.2023 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-1 HT 1-1 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
08.09.2022 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-0 HT 1-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
03.06.2022 Sport Recife Sport Recife 2-1 HT 0-1 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
21.11.2019 Sport Recife Sport Recife 2-1 HT 0-1 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ponte Preta
0-4
AWAY Sport Recife
0.67 xG 1.73
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 23
1 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
244 Passes 503
76% Pass Accuracy 88%
9 Box Touches 32
10 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Ponte Preta vs Sport Recife
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sport Recife swept aside Ponte Preta 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 31% / 37% — and on the day Sport Recife made the difference. On goals, no to both teams scoring (58%) landed while under 2.5 goals (62%) missed.

On the day, Ponte Preta had 36% of the ball to Sport Recife's 64%, shots finished 8-23, expected goals 0.67 to 1.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sport Recife led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Ponte Preta and 1.83 for Sport Recife.

What was the final score of Ponte Preta vs Sport Recife?

Ponte Preta 0-4 Sport Recife in the Brazil - Serie B on 17/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ponte Preta vs Sport Recife?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sport Recife win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Ponte Preta 32%, draw 31%, Sport Recife 37%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sport Recife), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sport Recife) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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