Vila Nova vs Ituano Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Vila Nova v Ituano — Team-Based Signals
Vila Nova vs Ituano Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
1-2
HT 0-2
Vila Nova
BR2
1-0
HT 1-0
Ituano
BR2
1-1
HT 0-0
Ituano
BR2
3-1
HT 2-0
Vila Nova
BR2
Vila Nova 3-4 Ituano — Actual Match Statistics
Ituano nicked a narrow win over Vila Nova 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match lean was Vila Nova at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Vila Nova had 51% of the ball to Ituano's 49%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 1.48 to 1.75.
For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Vila Nova had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Vila Nova and 1.00 for Ituano.
What was the final score of Vila Nova vs Ituano?
Vila Nova 3-4 Ituano in the Brazil - Serie B on 17/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Vila Nova vs Ituano?
Before kick-off our model rated a Vila Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Vila Nova 43%, draw 28%, Ituano 29%. The final score 3-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.