Guingamp 1-2 Lorient — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.46
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
37%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.9
Over
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.26
2-3
41%
1.79
4-5
22%
3.48
6+
10%
13.55
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.26 — our 27% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
6.1
1/2
7%
23.75
1/X
7%
15.05
X/1
10%
7.91
X/2
16%
4.5
X/X
12%
5.0
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
14%
2.57
2/X
9%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
26%
+9.4pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.0pp
37%
Away Win
50%
-12.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.1pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guingamp EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Lorient EU Bookmakers 54%
-16% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -12%
0.94/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.17
-30% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -17%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
308 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 422 · 84%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
21.5 Crosses 19.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guingamp
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Lorient
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.15 xG 1.62
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
446 Passes 324
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.11.2024 Lorient Lorient 3-1 HT 2-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
10.08.2024 Guingamp Guingamp 1-1 HT 1-0 Lorient Lorient HAZ
22.07.2023 Guingamp Guingamp 0-2 HT 0-1 Lorient Lorient HAZ
16.12.2022 Guingamp Guingamp 1-0 HT 1-0 Lorient Lorient HAZ
08.02.2020 Guingamp Guingamp 2-1 HT 1-1 Lorient Lorient FR2
16.11.2019 Lorient Lorient 3-0 HT 1-0 Guingamp Guingamp FRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guingamp
1-2
AWAY Lorient
0.41 xG 1.39
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 2
369 Passes 328
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 15
25 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Guingamp vs Lorient
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lorient nicked a narrow win over Guingamp 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 37%) promised a tight game; Lorient found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Guingamp had 53% of the ball to Lorient's 47%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 0.41 to 1.39.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lorient led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Guingamp and 1.67 for Lorient.

What was the final score of Guingamp vs Lorient?

Guingamp 1-2 Lorient in the France - Ligue 2 on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guingamp vs Lorient?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lorient win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Guingamp 35%, draw 28%, Lorient 37%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lorient) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lorient) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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