Pogon Siedlce 2-1 Znicz Pruszkow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.38
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
34%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.74
Over
42%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2.79
2-3
41%
1.74
4-5
19%
3.85
6+
9%
17.55
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.79 — our 31% vs market 28.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
17%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
38%
-0.8pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.4pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+0.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
54%
+4.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
46%
-4.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.2pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Siedlce EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Znicz Pruszkow EU Bookmakers 37%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
0.71/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.25
-50% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
318 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Siedlce
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Znicz Pruszkow
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.09.2024 Znicz Pruszkow Znicz Pruszkow 1-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL1
23.04.2023 Znicz Pruszkow Znicz Pruszkow 0-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL2
17.09.2022 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 3-4 HT 2-3 Znicz Pruszkow Znicz Pruszkow POL2
22.05.2022 Znicz Pruszkow Znicz Pruszkow 0-1 HT 0-1 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL2
13.11.2021 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 1-2 HT 1-0 Znicz Pruszkow Znicz Pruszkow POL2
24.04.2021 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 2-2 HT 2-0 Znicz Pruszkow Znicz Pruszkow POL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Siedlce
2-1
AWAY Znicz Pruszkow
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Pogon Siedlce vs Znicz Pruszkow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Siedlce nicked a narrow win over Znicz Pruszkow 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 29% / 34% — and on the day Pogon Siedlce made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pogon Siedlce had 42% of the ball to Znicz Pruszkow's 58%, shots finished 9-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Znicz Pruszkow led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Pogon Siedlce and 1.50 for Znicz Pruszkow.

What was the final score of Pogon Siedlce vs Znicz Pruszkow?

Pogon Siedlce 2-1 Znicz Pruszkow in the Poland - 1st Division on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Siedlce vs Znicz Pruszkow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Siedlce win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Pogon Siedlce 38%, draw 29%, Znicz Pruszkow 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pogon Siedlce) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pogon Siedlce) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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