Katowice 3-1 Puszcza Niepolomice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.82
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.55
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.15
6+ Goals
11%
10.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.55 — our 26% vs market 22.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.48
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.5
X/1
15%
4.58
X/2
14%
8.3
X/X
15%
5.22
2/1
9%
22.9
2/2
7%
6.2
2/X
7%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-5.7pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.6pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.4pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Katowice EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice EU Bookmakers 28%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
0.97/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.59
-68% / +108% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -24%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
336 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 231 · 71%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
21.1 Crosses 17.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Katowice
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
5.13 xG 1.21
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
253 Passes 216
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
39 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 34
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.10.2024 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 0-6 HT 0-2 Katowice Katowice POL
13.05.2023 Katowice Katowice 2-2 HT 1-1 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL1
15.10.2022 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 1-1 HT 0-1 Katowice Katowice POL1
01.05.2022 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 1-1 HT 0-0 Katowice Katowice POL1
23.10.2021 Katowice Katowice 1-0 HT 1-0 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL1
04.05.2014 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 2-2 HT 1-1 Katowice Katowice POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Katowice
3-1
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice
2.63 xG 0.64
62% Ball Possession 38%
24 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 5
430 Passes 211
84% Pass Accuracy 70%
35 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Katowice vs Puszcza Niepolomice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Katowice got the better of Puszcza Niepolomice 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Katowice as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Katowice had 62% of the ball to Puszcza Niepolomice's 38%, shots finished 24-9, expected goals 2.63 to 0.64.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Katowice had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Katowice and 1.00 for Puszcza Niepolomice.

What was the final score of Katowice vs Puszcza Niepolomice?

Katowice 3-1 Puszcza Niepolomice in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Katowice vs Puszcza Niepolomice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Katowice win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Katowice 45%, draw 28%, Puszcza Niepolomice 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Katowice), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Katowice) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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