Ceara 1-0 Nautico — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 12 Apr 2026

📅12/04/2026 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
54%
1.89
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
22%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
1.62
Over
49%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.99
No
48%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2.44
2-3
38%
1.7
4-5
23%
4.29
6+
10%
22.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Ceara win — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
54%
Home Win
49%
+5.1pp
23%
Draw
28%
-4.6pp
22%
Away Win
23%
-0.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
58%
-7.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
42%
+7.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
46%
+5.6pp
48%
BTTS No
54%
-5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceara The Market 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Nautico The Market 26%
-7% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -3%
1.55/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.39
-27% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -14%
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
320 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 78%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
27.6 Crosses 16.7
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ceara
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Nautico
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
356 Passes 234
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
12 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 1
26.08.2017 Ceara Ceara 1-0 HT 1-0 Nautico Nautico BR2
27.05.2017 Nautico Nautico 0-2 HT 0-0 Ceara Ceara BR2
16.10.2016 Nautico Nautico 1-0 HT 0-0 Ceara Ceara BR2
25.06.2016 Ceara Ceara 2-1 HT 2-0 Nautico Nautico BR2
08.09.2015 Ceara Ceara 1-0 HT 0-0 Nautico Nautico BR2
03.06.2015 Nautico Nautico 2-0 HT 1-0 Ceara Ceara BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ceara
1-0
AWAY Nautico
1.56 xG 0.80
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
246 Passes 382
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Box Touches 26
9 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ceara vs Nautico
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceara nicked a narrow win over Nautico 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ceara as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Ceara had 40% of the ball to Nautico's 60%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 1.56 to 0.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ceara had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ceara and 0.67 for Nautico.

What was the final score of Ceara vs Nautico?

Ceara 1-0 Nautico in the Brazil - Serie B on 12/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceara vs Nautico?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ceara win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Ceara 54%, draw 23%, Nautico 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ceara), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ceara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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