Ponte Preta 0-1 Vila Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 12 Apr 2026

📅12/04/2026 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.67
Draw
28%
2.88
Away
29%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
1.6
Over
43%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1
34%
2.42
2-3
38%
1.7
4-5
19%
4.33
6+
9%
23.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
43%
Home Win
34%
+9.2pp
28%
Draw
31%
-2.6pp
29%
Away Win
36%
-6.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.3pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ponte Preta The Market 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Vila Nova The Market 39%
+9% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.21/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.19
+1% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -16%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
286 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 77%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
20.2 Crosses 17.6
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ponte Preta
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Vila Nova
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.91 xG 1.15
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
246 Passes 295
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
12 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 2
12.11.2024 Vila Nova Vila Nova 2-1 HT 1-1 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
24.07.2024 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 2-0 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
16.09.2023 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-1 HT 1-1 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
28.05.2023 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-0 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
09.10.2022 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-1 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
29.06.2022 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-1 HT 1-1 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ponte Preta
0-1
AWAY Vila Nova
1.83 xG 0.77
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 4
277 Passes 296
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 18
28 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ponte Preta vs Vila Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vila Nova nicked a narrow win over Ponte Preta 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Ponte Preta at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Ponte Preta had 50% of the ball to Vila Nova's 50%, shots finished 17-14, expected goals 1.83 to 0.77 — on chances, Ponte Preta could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ponte Preta had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Ponte Preta and 0.83 for Vila Nova.

What was the final score of Ponte Preta vs Vila Nova?

Ponte Preta 0-1 Vila Nova in the Brazil - Serie B on 12/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ponte Preta vs Vila Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ponte Preta win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Ponte Preta 43%, draw 28%, Vila Nova 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Ponte Preta) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ponte Preta) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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