Ponte Preta vs Vila Nova Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Ponte Preta v Vila Nova — Team-Based Signals
Ponte Preta vs Vila Nova Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Ponte Preta 0-1 Vila Nova — Actual Match Statistics
Vila Nova nicked a narrow win over Ponte Preta 1-0 away from home.
Our pre-match lean was Ponte Preta at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Ponte Preta had 50% of the ball to Vila Nova's 50%, shots finished 17-14, expected goals 1.83 to 0.77 — on chances, Ponte Preta could feel hard done by.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ponte Preta had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Ponte Preta and 0.83 for Vila Nova.
What was the final score of Ponte Preta vs Vila Nova?
Ponte Preta 0-1 Vila Nova in the Brazil - Serie B on 12/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Ponte Preta vs Vila Nova?
Before kick-off our model rated a Ponte Preta win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Ponte Preta 43%, draw 28%, Vila Nova 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Ponte Preta) went the other way.