Vila Nova 2-1 Ponte Preta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 12 Nov 2024

📅12/11/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
33%
3.11
Away
25%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.62
Over 2.5
35%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.96
No
60%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.58
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.57
6+ Goals
7%
24.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.58 — our 35% vs market 32.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-4.3pp
33%
Draw
29%
+3.6pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+0.7pp
65%
Under 2.5
58%
+7.3pp
35%
Over 2.5
42%
-7.3pp
40%
BTTS Yes
47%
-6.6pp
60%
BTTS No
53%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Ponte Preta EU Bookmakers 28%
-4% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
1.16/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.24
-20% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
306 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 76%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
20.9 Crosses 18.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vila Nova
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Ponte Preta
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.10 xG 0.75
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
275 Passes 259
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 11
22 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
24.07.2024 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 2-0 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
16.09.2023 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-1 HT 1-1 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
28.05.2023 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-0 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
09.10.2022 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-1 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
29.06.2022 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-1 HT 1-1 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
03.10.2021 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-1 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vila Nova
2-1
AWAY Ponte Preta
1.63 xG 1.65
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
428 Passes 264
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
12 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Vila Nova vs Ponte Preta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vila Nova nicked a narrow win over Ponte Preta 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Vila Nova as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vila Nova had 59% of the ball to Ponte Preta's 41%, shots finished 16-15, expected goals 1.63 to 1.65.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ponte Preta led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Vila Nova and 1.17 for Ponte Preta.

What was the final score of Vila Nova vs Ponte Preta?

Vila Nova 2-1 Ponte Preta in the Brazil - Serie B on 12/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vila Nova vs Ponte Preta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vila Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Vila Nova 42%, draw 33%, Ponte Preta 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vila Nova) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vila Nova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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