Ponte Preta 2-0 Vila Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 24 Jul 2024

📅24/07/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.09
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.59
Over 2.5
37%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.99
No
58%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
44%
-4.4pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.7pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+3.7pp
63%
Under 2.5
59%
+4.2pp
37%
Over 2.5
41%
-4.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
46%
-4.3pp
58%
BTTS No
54%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ponte Preta EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +3%
1.23/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.04
+5% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
282 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
21.6 Crosses 14.5
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ponte Preta
1W-5D-0L
AWAY Vila Nova
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.71 xG 0.97
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
256 Passes 294
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
10 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 3
16.09.2023 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-1 HT 1-1 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
28.05.2023 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-0 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
09.10.2022 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-1 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
29.06.2022 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-1 HT 1-1 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
03.10.2021 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-1 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
04.07.2021 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-0 HT 0-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ponte Preta
2-0
AWAY Vila Nova
0.54 xG 1.41
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
267 Passes 328
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
12 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ponte Preta vs Vila Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ponte Preta got the better of Vila Nova 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 30%) promised a tight game; Ponte Preta found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Ponte Preta had 46% of the ball to Vila Nova's 54%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.54 to 1.41 — on chances, Vila Nova could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ponte Preta had the better of it with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Ponte Preta and 0.67 for Vila Nova.

What was the final score of Ponte Preta vs Vila Nova?

Ponte Preta 2-0 Vila Nova in the Brazil - Serie B on 24/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ponte Preta vs Vila Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ponte Preta win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Ponte Preta 40%, draw 30%, Vila Nova 30%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ponte Preta), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ponte Preta) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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