Paysandu 1-0 Brusque — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 12 Nov 2024

📅12/11/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.53
Draw
30%
3.72
Away
22%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.68
Over 2.5
35%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.16
No
63%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
39%
2.74
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
15%
4.28
6+ Goals
8%
21.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.74 — our 39% vs market 30.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
61%
-13.2pp
30%
Draw
23%
+6.3pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+6.9pp
65%
Under 2.5
56%
+9.1pp
35%
Over 2.5
44%
-9.1pp
37%
BTTS Yes
42%
-4.7pp
63%
BTTS No
58%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paysandu EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Brusque EU Bookmakers 19%
+4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -5%
1.33/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.44
-4% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -10%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
345 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 73%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.3
26.6 Crosses 14.2
3.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paysandu
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Brusque
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.92 xG 1.40
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
396 Passes 241
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 26
27 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 4
25.07.2024 Brusque Brusque 1-0 HT 1-0 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
02.07.2023 Paysandu Paysandu 0-2 HT 0-0 Brusque Brusque BRE3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paysandu
1-0
AWAY Brusque
1.09 xG 0.50
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 14
10 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 4
286 Passes 144
81% Pass Accuracy 71%
22 Box Touches 10
26 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Paysandu vs Brusque
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paysandu edged past Brusque 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Paysandu as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (63%) came in.

On the day, Paysandu had 61% of the ball to Brusque's 39%, shots finished 19-14, expected goals 1.09 to 0.50.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Brusque led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Paysandu and 1.50 for Brusque.

What was the final score of Paysandu vs Brusque?

Paysandu 1-0 Brusque in the Brazil - Serie B on 12/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paysandu vs Brusque?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paysandu win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Paysandu 48%, draw 30%, Brusque 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paysandu), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Paysandu) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR2 More Brazil - Serie B
12 Nov 2024
00:30 Vila Nova vs Ponte Preta Analysis →
03:00 Coritiba vs Santos Analysis →