Fiorenzuola 1-3 Novara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 12 May 2024

Fiorenzuola
1-3 HT 0-3
Novara
📅12/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Serie C – 2023/2024

Fiorenzuola vs Novara Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.47
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
36%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.77
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.22
6+ Goals
11%
20.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.77 — our 32% vs market 30.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
10%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
36%
-1.0pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.4pp
36%
Away Win
35%
+0.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.0pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fiorenzuola v Novara — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fiorenzuola EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Novara EU Bookmakers 39%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -8%
1.04/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.48
-11% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -26%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
262 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 71%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7

Fiorenzuola vs Novara Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fiorenzuola
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Novara
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
54% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.12.2023 Fiorenzuola Fiorenzuola 1-2 HT 0-1 Novara Novara İTC
03.10.2023 Fiorenzuola Fiorenzuola 2-3 HT 2-2 Novara Novara İTCK

Fiorenzuola 1-3 Novara — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fiorenzuola
1-3
AWAY Novara
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 5
18 Corners 1
6 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Fiorenzuola vs Novara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novara got the better of Fiorenzuola 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 29% / 36% — and on the day Novara made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fiorenzuola had 56% of the ball to Novara's 44%, shots finished 20-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Novara led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Fiorenzuola and 2.50 for Novara.

What was the final score of Fiorenzuola vs Novara?

Fiorenzuola 1-3 Novara in the Italy - Serie C on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fiorenzuola vs Novara?

Before kick-off our model rated an Novara win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Fiorenzuola 35%, draw 29%, Novara 36%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Novara) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Novara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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