Saarbrücken 2-1 Freiburg II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.49
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
19%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.21
Over 2.5
53%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.47
2-3 Goals
39%
1.89
4-5 Goals
25%
2.92
6+ Goals
12%
8.53
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.84
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.6
X/1
16%
3.78
X/2
8%
12.15
X/X
12%
6.4
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
20.9
2/2
6%
9.0
2/X
7%
17.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.9 — our 7% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
63%
-5.8pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.2pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+2.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.8pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Saarbrücken EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg II EU Bookmakers 20%
+1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -22%
1.78/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.96
-5% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
366 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 198 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Saarbrücken
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Freiburg II
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
09.12.2023 Freiburg II Freiburg II 0-4 HT 0-1 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
27.03.2023 Freiburg II Freiburg II 1-1 HT 0-1 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
01.10.2022 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 2-2 HT 0-1 Freiburg II Freiburg II AL3
14.05.2022 Freiburg II Freiburg II 1-1 HT 1-0 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
11.12.2021 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 1-0 HT 1-0 Freiburg II Freiburg II AL3
05.10.2019 Freiburg II Freiburg II 1-3 HT 0-1 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken ALMBÖL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Saarbrücken
2-1
AWAY Freiburg II
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Saarbrücken vs Freiburg II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Saarbrücken squeezed past Freiburg II 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Saarbrücken as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Saarbrücken had 52% of the ball to Freiburg II's 48%, shots finished 10-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Saarbrücken had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Saarbrücken and 0.83 for Freiburg II.

What was the final score of Saarbrücken vs Freiburg II?

Saarbrücken 2-1 Freiburg II in the Germany - 3rd Division on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Saarbrücken vs Freiburg II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Saarbrücken win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Saarbrücken 57%, draw 24%, Freiburg II 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Saarbrücken), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Saarbrücken) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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