Melbourne Victory 0-0 Wellington Phoenix — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 12 May 2024

Melbourne Victory
0-0 HT 0-0
Wellington Phoenix
📅12/05/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
33%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.86
Over 2.5
53%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.3
2-3 Goals
35%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.58
6+ Goals
11%
14.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.58 — our 28% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.75
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.5
X/1
19%
4.48
X/2
10%
7.15
X/X
12%
4.71
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
12%
5.29
2/X
7%
13.95
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 11% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
47%
-5.2pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+6.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
50%
-3.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
50%
+3.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.5pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Melbourne Victory v Wellington Phoenix — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne Victory EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 30%
-10% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +13%
1.53/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.89
-20% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
393 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 82%
28.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.1
18.3 Crosses 15.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4

Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne Victory
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.06 xG 1.04
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
416 Passes 414
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
35 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.04.2024 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
19.01.2024 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-1 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
10.11.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 1-1 HT 1-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
01.04.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-2 HT 1-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
03.02.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 3-1 HT 1-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
29.04.2022 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 3-1 HT 1-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS

Melbourne Victory 0-0 Wellington Phoenix — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne Victory
0-0
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
0.78 xG 0.32
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 0
10 Corners 3
438 Passes 337
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
39 Box Touches 11
32 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Victory and Wellington Phoenix played out a goalless draw. Neither side could find a way through.

Our pre-match lean was Melbourne Victory at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Melbourne Victory had 56% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 44%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 0.78 to 0.32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Melbourne Victory and 1.00 for Wellington Phoenix.

What was the final score of Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix?

Melbourne Victory 0-0 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Victory 42%, draw 25%, Wellington Phoenix 33%. The final score 0-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne Victory) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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