LASK Linz 2-2 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 12 May 2024

LASK Linz
2-2 HT 1-1
Sturm Graz
📅12/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Austria - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

LASK Linz vs Sturm Graz Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.47
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
29%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.42
2-3 Goals
36%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
28%
3.47
6+ Goals
9%
13.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.47 — our 28% vs market 23.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
30%
3.75
1/2
5%
28.5
1/X
6%
12.9
X/1
9%
5.62
X/2
10%
5.52
X/X
15%
4.64
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
13%
3.65
2/X
5%
12.9
Value flag · 1/1 at 3.75 — our 30% vs market 21.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
37%
+7.9pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.5pp
29%
Away Win
36%
-7.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.7pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

LASK Linz v Sturm Graz — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME LASK Linz EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 40%
+11% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +2%
2.18/1.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.51
+77% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +16%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
281 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 72%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
18.7 Crosses 17.2
3.6 Yellow Cards 2.2

LASK Linz vs Sturm Graz Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME LASK Linz
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Sturm Graz
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.53 xG 1.37
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
306 Passes 242
73% Pass Accuracy 70%
23 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
07.04.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-0 HT 1-0 LASK Linz LASK Linz AVU
05.11.2023 LASK Linz LASK Linz 3-1 HT 2-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
05.08.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-0 HT 1-0 LASK Linz LASK Linz AVU
03.06.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-0 HT 2-0 LASK Linz LASK Linz AVU
09.04.2023 LASK Linz LASK Linz 2-1 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
06.04.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-0 HT 0-0 LASK Linz LASK Linz AUK

LASK Linz 2-2 Sturm Graz — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME LASK Linz
2-2
AWAY Sturm Graz
2.48 xG 1.22
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
314 Passes 228
77% Pass Accuracy 70%
24 Box Touches 18
28 Crosses 22
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH LASK Linz vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

LASK Linz and Sturm Graz couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was LASK Linz at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, LASK Linz had 55% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 45%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 2.48 to 1.22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for LASK Linz and 1.33 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of LASK Linz vs Sturm Graz?

LASK Linz 2-2 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for LASK Linz vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated a LASK Linz win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split LASK Linz 45%, draw 27%, Sturm Graz 29%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (LASK Linz) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (LASK Linz) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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