Palmeiras 0-2 Atletico Paranaense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 12 May 2024

Palmeiras
0-2 HT 0-1
Atletico Paranaense
📅12/05/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.66
Draw
31%
3.54
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.68
Over 2.5
39%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.77
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.22
6+ Goals
9%
20.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.77 — our 32% vs market 30.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.25
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.95
X/1
17%
3.74
X/2
8%
9.35
X/X
18%
4.58
2/1
9%
26.0
2/2
8%
7.96
2/X
6%
16.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
56%
-8.4pp
31%
Draw
25%
+5.9pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+2.5pp
61%
Under 2.5
56%
+5.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
44%
-5.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.7pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Palmeiras v Atletico Paranaense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 22%
-3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +8%
1.64/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.38
-3% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
350 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
24.2 Crosses 15.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2

Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.89 xG 1.47
58% Ball Possession 42%
19 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
356 Passes 242
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
05.11.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
02.07.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-2 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
26.10.2022 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-3 HT 1-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
07.09.2022 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-2 HT 1-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense LKU
31.08.2022 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-0 HT 1-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras LKU
03.07.2022 Palmeiras Palmeiras 0-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1

Palmeiras 0-2 Atletico Paranaense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
0-2
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
2.15 xG 0.91
63% Ball Possession 37%
23 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 6
351 Passes 189
86% Pass Accuracy 73%
29 Box Touches 14
29 Crosses 5
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Paranaense got the better of Palmeiras 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Palmeiras at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Palmeiras had 63% of the ball to Atletico Paranaense's 37%, shots finished 23-11, expected goals 2.15 to 0.91 — on chances, Palmeiras could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Palmeiras and 1.33 for Atletico Paranaense.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense?

Palmeiras 0-2 Atletico Paranaense in the Brazil - Serie A on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 48%, draw 31%, Atletico Paranaense 22%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Palmeiras) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
12 May 2024
22:00 Fortaleza vs Botafogo Analysis →
22:00 Atletico Goianiense vs Cruzeiro Analysis →