Tallinna Kalev 1-0 Trans Narva — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.19
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.61
No
45%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.8pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.0pp
33%
Away Win
33%
-0.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.3pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tallinna Kalev EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Trans Narva EU Bookmakers 37%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -33%
1.49/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/2.03
+7% / +98% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -55% / -36%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
303 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 413 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tallinna Kalev
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Trans Narva
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
13.04.2024 Trans Narva Trans Narva 2-2 HT 0-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
11.11.2023 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 5-0 HT 2-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
01.09.2023 Trans Narva Trans Narva 2-1 HT 1-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
07.06.2023 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 0-1 HT 0-1 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
22.04.2023 Trans Narva Trans Narva 2-1 HT 0-1 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
11.10.2022 Trans Narva Trans Narva 2-1 HT 1-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev ESTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tallinna Kalev
1-0
AWAY Trans Narva
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 8
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tallinna Kalev vs Trans Narva
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tallinna Kalev edged past Trans Narva 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 33%) promised a tight game; Tallinna Kalev found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tallinna Kalev had 48% of the ball to Trans Narva's 52%, shots finished 12-19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Trans Narva led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Tallinna Kalev and 1.50 for Trans Narva.

What was the final score of Tallinna Kalev vs Trans Narva?

Tallinna Kalev 1-0 Trans Narva in the Estonia - Premium League on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tallinna Kalev vs Trans Narva?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tallinna Kalev win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Tallinna Kalev 39%, draw 28%, Trans Narva 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tallinna Kalev) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tallinna Kalev) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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