Istra 1961 1-1 Hajduk Split — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 12 May 2024

Istra 1961
1-1 HT 1-1
Hajduk Split
📅12/05/2024 · 🕒20:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Croatia - 1. HNL – 2023/2024

Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.17
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
33%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.6
Over 2.5
34%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.96
No
62%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
41%
2.54
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.66
6+ Goals
6%
25.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.54 — our 41% vs market 33.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
15%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
28%
+7.3pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.3pp
33%
Away Win
43%
-10.6pp
66%
Under 2.5
59%
+7.7pp
34%
Over 2.5
41%
-7.7pp
38%
BTTS Yes
47%
-9.0pp
62%
BTTS No
53%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Istra 1961 v Hajduk Split — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 48%
+2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +11%
1.10/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.84/0.93
+9% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +54%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
237 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 74%
15.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
13.3 Crosses 18.1
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.5

Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Istra 1961
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Hajduk Split
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.47 xG 1.12
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
296 Passes 355
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
10 Box Touches 28
10 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.03.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
26.11.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 0-2 HT 0-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
02.09.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 0-1 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
07.04.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-2 HT 2-2 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
29.01.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 3-0 HT 1-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
17.09.2022 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-2 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR

Istra 1961 1-1 Hajduk Split — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Istra 1961
1-1
AWAY Hajduk Split
1.02 xG 1.04
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 11
195 Passes 240
65% Pass Accuracy 70%
14 Box Touches 25
4 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Istra 1961 and Hajduk Split couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match split (35% / 32% / 33%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (66%) landed while no to both teams scoring (62%) missed.

On the day, Istra 1961 had 45% of the ball to Hajduk Split's 55%, shots finished 11-18, expected goals 1.02 to 1.04.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Istra 1961 and 1.17 for Hajduk Split.

What was the final score of Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split?

Istra 1961 1-1 Hajduk Split in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split?

Before kick-off our model rated a Istra 1961 win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Istra 1961 35%, draw 32%, Hajduk Split 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Istra 1961), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Istra 1961) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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