Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-1 Slaven Belupo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.18
Over 2.5
48%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.35
2-3 Goals
39%
1.88
4-5 Goals
23%
2.96
6+ Goals
10%
8.88
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.35 — our 28% vs market 18.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
57%
-10.8pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.9pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+5.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
42%
+9.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
58%
-9.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.8pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 23%
-5% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
1.44/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.38
-9% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
396 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 73%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
23.0 Crosses 16.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Slaven Belupo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.31 xG 0.69
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
340 Passes 244
75% Pass Accuracy 68%
19 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
02.03.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 2-3 HT 0-2 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
16.01.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb ARK
24.11.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-3 HT 1-2 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
01.09.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-1 HT 0-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
12.05.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
11.03.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 HT 0-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
2-1
AWAY Slaven Belupo
1.39 xG 1.16
65% Ball Possession 35%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
419 Passes 177
80% Pass Accuracy 64%
20 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Slaven Belupo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiva Zagreb squeezed past Slaven Belupo 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lokomotiva Zagreb as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Lokomotiva Zagreb had 65% of the ball to Slaven Belupo's 35%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 1.39 to 1.16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiva Zagreb had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Lokomotiva Zagreb and 0.83 for Slaven Belupo.

What was the final score of Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Slaven Belupo?

Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-1 Slaven Belupo in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Slaven Belupo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiva Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiva Zagreb 46%, draw 28%, Slaven Belupo 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiva Zagreb) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiva Zagreb) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HIR More Croatia - 1. HNL
12 May 2024
20:10 Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split Analysis →