FK Orenburg 0-2 Lokomotiv Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 12 May 2024

FK Orenburg
0-2 HT 0-1
Lokomotiv Moscow
📅12/05/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2023/2024

FK Orenburg vs Lokomotiv Moscow Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
34%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.33
Over 2.5
48%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.46
No
52%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.99
2-3 Goals
40%
1.95
4-5 Goals
20%
2.76
6+ Goals
11%
7.28
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.99 — our 29% vs market 15.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.21
1/2
12%
25.5
1/X
8%
12.4
X/1
16%
5.58
X/2
8%
6.23
X/X
13%
5.56
2/1
6%
23.6
2/2
13%
3.74
2/X
7%
12.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
41%
-1.3pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.2pp
34%
Away Win
34%
-0.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
39%
+12.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
61%
-12.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
64%
-16.2pp
52%
BTTS No
36%
+16.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

FK Orenburg v Lokomotiv Moscow — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 38%
+9% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +12%
1.79/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.32
+18% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
310 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 76%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
25.2 Crosses 14.1
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.8

FK Orenburg vs Lokomotiv Moscow Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Orenburg
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.31 xG 2.34
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
274 Passes 328
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Box Touches 26
24 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.09.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 0-2 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
16.04.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-4 HT 1-3 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
28.08.2022 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 5-1 HT 3-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
21.06.2020 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
22.09.2019 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-3 HT 0-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
08.12.2018 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 2-1 HT 0-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS

FK Orenburg 0-2 Lokomotiv Moscow — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Orenburg
0-2
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
0.70 xG 2.23
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
330 Passes 228
78% Pass Accuracy 70%
31 Box Touches 24
38 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FK Orenburg vs Lokomotiv Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow beat FK Orenburg 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 34% — and on the day Lokomotiv Moscow made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, FK Orenburg had 58% of the ball to Lokomotiv Moscow's 42%, shots finished 13-19, expected goals 0.70 to 2.23.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Moscow led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for FK Orenburg and 2.50 for Lokomotiv Moscow.

What was the final score of FK Orenburg vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

FK Orenburg 0-2 Lokomotiv Moscow in the Russia - Premier League on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Orenburg vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated a FK Orenburg win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split FK Orenburg 39%, draw 27%, Lokomotiv Moscow 34%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (FK Orenburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FK Orenburg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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