Diala 1-0 Erbil — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iraq - Premier League, 12 May 2025

Diala
1-0 HT 0-0
Erbil
📅12/05/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Iraq - Premier League – 2024/2025

Diala vs Erbil Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.47
Draw
26%
2.94
Away
36%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.56
Over 2.5
47%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.99
No
57%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
4%
1/X
11%
X/1
7%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
3%
2/2
21%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.4pp
26%
Draw
30%
-4.0pp
36%
Away Win
33%
+2.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
60%
-6.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
40%
+6.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
46%
-3.1pp
57%
BTTS No
54%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Diala v Erbil — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Diala EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Erbil EU Bookmakers 37%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
0.49/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/0.25
-44% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +150%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
280 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –
POST-MATCH Diala vs Erbil
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Diala edged past Erbil 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 36% — and on the day Diala made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

What was the final score of Diala vs Erbil?

Diala 1-0 Erbil in the Iraq - Premier League on 12/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Diala vs Erbil?

Before kick-off our model rated a Diala win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Diala 38%, draw 26%, Erbil 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Diala), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Diala) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
IRAK More Iraq - Premier League
12 May 2025
18:00 Al Kahrabaa vs Al-Qasim Analysis →
20:30 Naft Al-Basra vs Al Najaf Analysis →
20:30 Newroz vs Naft Analysis →