Puszcza Niepolomice 2-3 Stal Mielec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 12 May 2025

Puszcza Niepolomice
2-3 HT 0-3
Stal Mielec
📅12/05/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Puszcza Niepolomice vs Stal Mielec Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.97
Over 2.5
54%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.63
No
43%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.52
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
25%
3.17
6+ Goals
13%
11.05
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.17 — our 25% vs market 25.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.61
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
10%
12.35
X/1
13%
5.81
X/2
12%
6.15
X/X
10%
4.8
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
27.0
2/2
16%
3.95
2/X
6%
12.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.0 — our 8% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
38%
+1.0pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.3pp
35%
Away Win
35%
+0.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
47%
-1.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
53%
+1.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
57%
-0.4pp
43%
BTTS No
43%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Puszcza Niepolomice v Stal Mielec — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Stal Mielec EU Bookmakers 38%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
1.44/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.37
+20% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +45%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
283 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
16.6 Crosses 15.7
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.9

Puszcza Niepolomice vs Stal Mielec Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Stal Mielec
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.40 xG 1.35
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
163 Passes 467
65% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 24
11 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.11.2024 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 2-0 HT 0-0 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL
09.02.2024 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 2-1 HT 0-1 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL
07.08.2023 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 1-0 HT 0-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
05.06.2020 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 0-0 HT 0-0 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL1
01.09.2019 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 0-1 HT 0-1 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL1
29.06.2019 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 0-1 HT 0-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec HAZ

Puszcza Niepolomice 2-3 Stal Mielec — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice
2-3
AWAY Stal Mielec
1.37 xG 3.19
41% Ball Possession 59%
21 Total Shots 21
5 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 6
260 Passes 400
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
32 Box Touches 42
27 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Puszcza Niepolomice vs Stal Mielec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stal Mielec nicked a narrow win over Puszcza Niepolomice 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Stal Mielec found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Puszcza Niepolomice had 41% of the ball to Stal Mielec's 59%, shots finished 21-21, expected goals 1.37 to 3.19 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Stal Mielec's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stal Mielec led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Puszcza Niepolomice and 1.00 for Stal Mielec.

What was the final score of Puszcza Niepolomice vs Stal Mielec?

Puszcza Niepolomice 2-3 Stal Mielec in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 12/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puszcza Niepolomice vs Stal Mielec?

Before kick-off our model rated a Puszcza Niepolomice win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Puszcza Niepolomice 39%, draw 26%, Stal Mielec 35%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Puszcza Niepolomice) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Puszcza Niepolomice) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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