USM Alger 1-1 Mostaganem — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Algeria - 1st Division, 12 May 2026

📅12/05/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
75%
1.18
Draw
16%
5.71
Away
9%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.29
Over 2.5
51%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.51
No
55%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.28
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
2.74
6+ Goals
10%
7.73
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.28 — our 25% vs market 17.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
2%
1/X
5%
X/1
24%
X/2
3%
X/X
7%
2/1
12%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
75%
Home Win
80%
-4.7pp
16%
Draw
14%
+1.8pp
9%
Away Win
6%
+2.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
40%
+8.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
60%
-8.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
36%
+8.9pp
55%
BTTS No
64%
-8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME USM Alger EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Mostaganem EU Bookmakers 9%
+2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -18%
1.90/0.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.61/2.28
-4% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -31%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
554 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 208 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME USM Alger
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Mostaganem
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
55% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.11.2025 Mostaganem Mostaganem 2-2 HT 1-1 USM Alger USM Alger CZYR
07.03.2025 USM Alger USM Alger 1-0 HT 1-0 Mostaganem Mostaganem CZYR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME USM Alger
1-1
AWAY Mostaganem
67% Ball Possession 33%
20 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 1
POST-MATCH USM Alger vs Mostaganem
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

USM Alger and Mostaganem shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

This one beat our numbers. USM Alger carried 75% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, USM Alger had 67% of the ball to Mostaganem's 33%, shots finished 20-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, USM Alger had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for USM Alger and 1.00 for Mostaganem.

What was the final score of USM Alger vs Mostaganem?

USM Alger 1-1 Mostaganem in the Algeria - 1st Division on 12/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for USM Alger vs Mostaganem?

Before kick-off our model rated a USM Alger win the most likely single outcome at about 75%, with the full match-result split USM Alger 75%, draw 16%, Mostaganem 9%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (USM Alger) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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CZYR More Algeria - 1st Division
12 May 2026
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