Liepaja 4-1 Ogre United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 12 May 2026

📅12/05/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.34
Draw
18%
4.62
Away
20%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.23
Over 2.5
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
3%
1/X
6%
X/1
25%
X/2
8%
X/X
7%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
70%
-8.3pp
18%
Draw
18%
-0.2pp
20%
Away Win
12%
+8.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.2pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liepaja EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Ogre United EU Bookmakers 15%
-9% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
1.49/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/2.36
-25% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -33%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
358 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 71%
30.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.6
23.7 Crosses 11.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liepaja
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Ogre United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
2.55 xG 0.40
70% Ball Possession 30%
14 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 0
439 Passes 139
82% Pass Accuracy 67%
38 Box Touches 7
9 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 4
20.03.2026 Ogre United 0-1 HT 0-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liepaja
4-1
AWAY Ogre United
3.78 xG 1.15
72% Ball Possession 28%
16 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
495 Passes 140
88% Pass Accuracy 67%
39 Box Touches 10
20 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Liepaja vs Ogre United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liepaja ran out comfortable winners over Ogre United 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Liepaja as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Liepaja had 72% of the ball to Ogre United's 28%, shots finished 16-6, expected goals 3.78 to 1.15.

What was the final score of Liepaja vs Ogre United?

Liepaja 4-1 Ogre United in the Latvia - Virsliga on 12/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liepaja vs Ogre United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liepaja win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Liepaja 62%, draw 18%, Ogre United 20%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liepaja), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Liepaja) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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