URA 1-1 Calvary — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 12 May 2026

URA
1-1 HT 1-1
Calvary
📅12/05/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Uganda - Premier League – 2025/2026

URA vs Calvary Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.34
Draw
24%
4.49
Away
15%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.91
Over 2.5
43%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.16
No
57%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
22%
X/2
6%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
5%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
70%
-9.3pp
24%
Draw
19%
+5.4pp
15%
Away Win
11%
+3.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+9.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
52%
-9.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
+0.9pp
57%
BTTS No
58%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

URA v Calvary — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME URA EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Calvary EU Bookmakers 14%
+3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
2.29/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.24/1.91
+17% / -45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -62% / -6%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
422 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

URA vs Calvary Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME URA
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Calvary
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
The Meetings
27.01.2026 Calvary 0-0 HT 0-0 URA URA UGA

URA 1-1 Calvary — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME URA
1-1
AWAY Calvary
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH URA vs Calvary
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

URA and Calvary couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

This one beat our numbers. URA carried 61% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, URA had 60% of the ball to Calvary's 40%, shots finished 10-8.

What was the final score of URA vs Calvary?

URA 1-1 Calvary in the Uganda - Premier League on 12/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for URA vs Calvary?

Before kick-off our model rated a URA win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split URA 61%, draw 24%, Calvary 15%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (URA), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (URA) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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